Press Review 5: Long term impact of COVID-19 on the twin transition and European Industry

All

Coronavirus Will Change the World Permanently. Here’s How.

Politico Magazine gives a complete overview of which (and how) aspects of our life and world will change because of the corona pandemic. Some examples are:

• Community:
  • Less individualism
  • A decline in polarization
  • Return to faith in serious experts
• Tech:
  • Regulatory barriers to online tools will fall
  • A healthier digital lifestyle
  • A boon to virtual reality
• Health/science:
  • The rise of telemedicine
  • Science reigns again
• Global economy:
  • More restraints on mass consumption
  • Stronger domestic supply chains
  • The inequality gap will widen

Digitalisation – digital transition

Shell CEO Says Pandemic May Change the Oil Business Forever

Ben van Beurden, CEO of Europe’s largest oil company Shell, shares his company is preparing itself for permanent change in customer behaviour as it is expected demand may not fully recover once the coronavirus pandemic is over. The global outbreak of COVID-19 has hit oil markets in a very bad way, with profits taking a huge plunge, but many fear the worst is yet to come. One of the long-term consequences of the pandemic is possibly a change in the way consumers work and travel, which could be even more devastating for the oil industry. “There will be changes, and therefore we have to be ready for that,” said Ben van Beurden in a Bloomberg Television interview. “That means that we probably have to re-establish what is going to be our strategy.” The world shifts gradually towards cleaner forms of energy over the recent years. Pressure on the oil sector to follow the path towards green energy and cut down carbon emissions, coming from governments, customers and investors will become even more exigent as a result of the pandemic.

Sustainability – green transition – European Green Deal

Virus shutdown clears the skies, but it's not a sign of a turnaround for climate change

Dr. Carl Mears from the Climate Center reports that “carbon dioxide emissions are currently projected to drop less than 2.5% due to the coronavirus pandemic. It is possible emissions will drop more. But even larger drops will have a negligible long-term effect on the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere, which builds up over decades and centuries.” To better understand this, there is a useful analogy. “Think of the carbon dioxide as water being added to your bathtub,” Mears says. “If it takes 15 minutes to fill the tub, turning down the tap for a few seconds (the equivalent of an economic slowdown for a few quarters) and then turning it back on again doesn’t change the amount of water in the tub very much. To keep the tub from overflowing, it is necessary to eventually turn off the tap.” What this crisis has succeeded in, is that people are looking at the planet as a whole. The virus has his the entire world, much like the climate crisis. The pandemic is obviously a horrible global event, but it also presents an opportunity to combat climate change. An opportunity that cannot be squandered.

Smart Health

Better prepared: Strengthening health systems for a post-COVID world

It is clear that the pandemic has placed health systems in Europe and beyond under an unprecedented level of strain. Despite many policy papers, foresight exercises and other studies that followed other pandemics, COVID still managed to take most of the world and governments by surprise. It has become clear that there is a need to redefine ‘preparedness’ for the heath systems of tomorrow, as well as to rethink health skills, training, know-how and education for future-proofing. Science|Business organized an online webinar in collaboration with Charité - Universitätsmedezin, Berlin’s world-renowed university hospital, to have a discussion between experts on these topics. You can watch the webinar using this link. In short, in order to improve preparedness, we need to focus on innovation and digitalisation in the health sector. Measuring, collecting and sharing of data, setting up a wide-spread data infrastructure is necessary and feasible in Europe, as alliances are already being set up for this purpose. To boost innovation, a political framework is needed to set up new models of cooperation between industry and academia. Public-private relations are also important to meet the needed production capacity once a vaccine is ready. We need to increase our agility: knowing the skills of people and shifting them effectively and efficiently to good use. It is also crucial to rethink future health skills, training, education in the medical sector. We need to assess whether traditional approaches have proven to be sufficient to cope with the current crisis. Digitalisation, for example, should have a prominent role in the education of health personnel.

Cities

Coronavirus Will Permanently Change How Cities Work

Cities will move towards being internet-based societies. It’s clear a huge shift has taken place, both in terms of technology but also infrastructure, including faster wi-fi and the introduction of 5G. Local authorities will take a step towards becoming in smart cities. Examples are social monitoring technologies, including cameras, drones and security systems, which will become more pervasive. Cities will shift towards cleaner transport. If the ‘remote’ way of life turns out to be permanent, vehicle traffic will reduce in city centres, leaving more room for green highways for bikers, pedestrians, etc. Urban planning will be affected, including changing road layouts, widening sidewalks, providing more alternative transport options… Demand for public transport will grow as fewer people will have a reason to own themselves for commuting. They’ll turn to bus, tram, train, car services or rentals for occasional trips.

Other

Viewpoint: COVID-19 will reshape globalisation

Fabian Zuleeg, CEO and chief economist of the Brussels-based European Policy Centre, says long term recession or even depression is threatening because of the corona crisis. At the same time, governments are guiding the largest economies towards a focus ‘on greater sovereignty and self-reliance.’ In other words: a search for greater autonomy in Europe has begun. The ways how to reduce vulnerability to black swans will reshape globalisation.  Examples are reshoring or nearshoring of manufacturing, relocation of research laboratories and service centres, shortening and diversifying supply lines… “The world will not de-globalise economically, but there will now be a greater tendency to emphasise strategic autonomy,” says Herman Van Rompuy, former president of the European Council, on this new concept of economic distancing. This also includes strengthening and coordinating defences against foreign direct investment (FDI), specifically from one well know predator: China.

Coronavirus – the long-term impact on property

One of the most prominent side-effects of the virus is the emergence of teleworking in all sectors. This is possible thanks to digital technologies and innovations. It is likely that these technology-enabled activities become the new way of working for millions of people as companies see their productivity isn’t hit and technology runs smooth.  A probable impact is that the demand for office space will drop. This doesn’t mean companies will ditch their head offices, but they will likely reduce office space.